🔵 Can Manchester City STILL Win the Premier League 2025/26? [UPDATED]

[UPDATED: 5 May 2026]

The Spark: City Stun Arsenal at the Etihad

Not long ago, Manchester City looked every bit the side destined to claim a seventh Premier League title in nine years. In what many called the defining match of the 2025/26 season, Pep Guardiola’s men delivered a masterclass against title rivals Arsenal in a 2–1 victory at the Etihad Stadium. Erling Haaland — who else — fired in the 65th-minute winner for his 23rd league goal of the campaign, completing a comeback after Kai Havertz had capitalised on a Gianluigi Donnarumma error to level Rayan Cherki’s breathtaking solo opener.

City had everything going for them: momentum, the Haaland factor, Pep Guardiola’s proven ability to dominate April — historically his strongest month, boasting an 80% win rate and 2.53 points per game since 2016. The machinery was purring. The scent of silverware was in the air.

The Collapse: Everton Pull the Rug Out

Then came Monday night, May 4th. Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. A match City could not afford to drop.

In one of the most stunning reversals of the entire season, Manchester City drew 3–3 with Everton, surrendering a lead in the most chaotic of fashions. Jeremy Doku had given City a slender but promising 1–0 advantage going into the break with a curling, unstoppable effort in the 43rd minute. The path to the top of the table seemed clear.

But 13 catastrophic second-half minutes unravelled everything:

• 68′ — Marc Guéhi’s careless back-pass was seized upon by substitute Thierno Barry. 1–1.
• 73′ — Jake O’Brien powered in from a James Garner corner. 2–1 Everton.
• 81′ — Barry struck again, converting after Merlin Röhl’s shot fell kindly. 3–1 Everton.

City showed fight. Haaland dinked one coolly over Jordan Pickford in the 83rd minute, and deep into seven minutes of stoppage time, Doku curled in a stunning equaliser to salvage a point. But a point was all it was.

City are now five points behind Arsenal with one game in hand. According to Opta, Arsenal have an 85.2% chance of winning the Premier League title. The Gunners will be crowned champions if they win their remaining three games — that includes a clash with West Ham and a Champions League semifinal against Atlético Madrid adding to the distraction.

The Cold Numbers

Arsenal are strong favourites at this point. A 5-point lead with only a handful of matches remaining is a very comfortable buffer — barring a dramatic collapse, this looks like Arsenal’s title to lose, which would be their first Premier League title since 2004.
Man City would need Arsenal to drop points in multiple games while winning all their own — possible but unlikely given Arsenal’s form (23 wins).

Can City Still Win the Title?

Mathematically? Yes. Realistically? The odds are heavily stacked against them.

For City to win the league, they would need:

1. Win their remaining three games.
2. Arsenal to drop points in at least two of their three remaining matches.

Arsenal face West Ham — who are fighting relegation — and the psychological weight of a Champions League campaign. Teams under that kind of fixture pile-up have cracked before. But Arsenal under Arteta are not the same side they were three years ago. They are steelier, more resilient, and crucially — they now smell the title.

Guardiola himself admitted post-Everton: “It’s not in our hands. Before it was, now it’s not.”

Verdict: The Dream Is Fading

What a turnaround in the space of just a few weeks. City’s win over Arsenal had every fan in sky blue believing this was finally their moment to snatch back the crown. Haaland was firing, Cherki was dazzling, Donnarumma was commanding — it all felt written in the stars.

But football has a cruel sense of humour. A stray back-pass. A slack defensive shape. Thirteen minutes that may well define their entire season. The same City side that looked unbeatable against Arsenal looked alarmingly vulnerable against a mid-table Everton.

Prediction: Arsenal are now strong favourites to be crowned Premier League champions 2025/26. Manchester City’s realistic hope rests not on their own performances alone — but on Arsenal’s nerve.

Given the Gunners’ track record of near-misses, City fans will cling to that hope until the very last whistle. But barring a dramatic Arsenal collapse, the title is heading to north London.

The sky blue half of Manchester will need to regroup, reflect, and come back hungrier next season. The door is still ajar — just barely. And in football, barely is sometimes all you need.

[Original Article]

For most of the 2025/26 Premier League season, Arsenal looked destined to finally break their title drought. Mikel Arteta’s side led the table for the better part of the campaign, carrying a 6-point advantage into April. But football has a habit of rewriting its own scripts — and this past Sunday, Manchester City rewrote theirs in bold ink.

The Game That Changed Everything

On April 19, 2026, in front of a roaring Etihad crowd, Manchester City defeated Arsenal 2–1 in one of the most consequential Premier League fixtures in recent memory. The result was more than three points — it was a statement.

Rayan Cherki broke the deadlock on 16 minutes with a stunning solo effort, weaving through Arsenal’s defence with the kind of improvised brilliance that has defined his debut season in England. Arsenal equalised almost immediately through a Kai Havertz opportunist finish after goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma fumbled his own clearance. Then came the decisive blow — Erling Haaland, pulling the trigger inside the area after a perfect cut-back from Nico O’Reilly, rattled home the winner on 65 minutes.

The scoreline slashed Arsenal’s lead from six points to three, with City holding a crucial game in hand. For the first time all season, Pep Guardiola’s side are the favourites.

The Points Situation

The numbers tell a compelling story. Manchester City, with an extra game to play, need to win their remaining six matches to reach 85 points. A win in their midweek trip to Burnley would put them level on points with Arsenal — and ahead on goals scored. That would be a seismic shift in momentum heading into the final weeks.

Arsenal, on the other hand, face Newcastle United at the Emirates on Saturday — a fixture that historically has not been kind to them in the title-deciding phase of seasons. Their remaining schedule also includes trips to West Ham and Crystal Palace on the final day, plus home games against Fulham and Burnley. On paper it looks manageable, but then again, so did the 6-point cushion they held just weeks ago.

City’s X-Factors: Cherki and Haaland

The most compelling reason to back Manchester City is the individual brilliance coursing through this squad. Rayan Cherki — the 22-year-old signed from Lyon — has been nothing short of extraordinary in his debut Premier League campaign. He now sits on 9 goals and 13 assists, leading the league in open-play assists and big chances created with 20. According to Sofascore, he earned an 8.4 rating in Sunday’s victory alone.

To put this in context, Kevin De Bruyne managed nine assists in his entire debut Premier League season with City in 2015/16. Cherki has already surpassed that. Pep Guardiola called him an “extraordinary talent,” and it is hard to disagree — he has become completely undroppable.

Then there is Erling Haaland — still the most lethal striker in world football. While his goal tally has slightly dipped since Christmas (three in 13 league games), the big-game instinct remains razor sharp. He showed that again on Sunday. When the title race demands a decisive touch, Haaland delivers.

Momentum Is Everything

Arsenal have now suffered two consecutive league defeats. Before Sunday’s loss, they were beaten — and the mental weight of that accumulation cannot be overstated. Arteta’s side have now been Premier League runners-up for three consecutive seasons. The question haunting the Emirates is not just tactical; it is psychological. Can they hold their nerve when it matters most? History says they have struggled to do so.

City, by contrast, are in the form of champions. A 3–0 demolition of Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on April 12 preceded their win over Arsenal. Before that, they beat Liverpool 2–1 in February. Guardiola has this squad peaking at exactly the right moment — steeled by experience, energised by fresh talent.

What Could Still Go Wrong for City

It would be naïve to crown City before the final whistle of the season. Their remaining fixtures include trips to Everton and Bournemouth — ground-level battles that can trip up title-chasing sides. Bournemouth in particular have been unpredictable this season. Any slip there could invite Arsenal straight back into the picture.

Furthermore, Arsenal still have a 3-point buffer. They are not beaten yet. Arteta is a tactically astute manager, and should Viktor Gyokeres — who was benched against City — return to full sharpness, the Gunners have the firepower to go on a winning run.

The Verdict

Manchester City will win the Premier League 2025/26 — but narrowly. The momentum, the squad depth, the individual brilliance of Cherki, and the cold-blooded consistency of Haaland all point in one direction. Arsenal have the points but are visibly buckling under the weight of expectation. City, by contrast, have found their rhythm at precisely the most important moment of the season.

If Guardiola’s side win at Burnley midweek and take the top spot, the psychological advantage will be overwhelming. Arsenal would then need to chase — a position they have never been comfortable in during a title run-in.

The Blue Moon is rising. And this time, it looks unlikely to set before May.