Recap
⚽ Fulham vs Bournemouth — Match Analysis & Prediction
Premier League GW36 | Craven Cottage | Saturday, 9 May 2026 | 15:00 BST / 10:00 ET
🏆 Verdict: Draw or Narrow Fulham Win — Predicted Score: 1–1
Confidence Level: MEDIUM (55–60%) — This is the tightest of the three GW36 matches to call. Bournemouth arrive in jaw-dropping form with a 15-game unbeaten run, but Craven Cottage is Fulham’s fortress and the Cottagers have a strong home record. Expect a close, tactical battle.
📊 Head-to-Head Overview
| Metric |
Detail |
| Last 10 H2H (all venues) |
BOU: 7W · 5D · FUL: 2W |
| Last Craven Cottage H2H |
Fulham 2–2 Bournemouth (Dec 2024) |
| Last 4 at Craven Cottage |
FUL: 1W · 3D · BOU: 0W |
| Bournemouth’s last away win at Craven Cottage |
October 2018 — 3–0 |
| Most recent H2H |
Bournemouth 3–1 Fulham (Oct 2025 @ Vitality) |
| Bournemouth’s H2H record (all-time) |
15W to Fulham’s 12W |
⚠️ Despite Bournemouth dominating H2H overall, they have not won at Craven Cottage since 2018 — 8 years without an away win at this ground. The last 4 visits have produced 1 Fulham win and 3 draws.
📈 Form Guide (Last 5 League Games)
| # |
Fulham |
Result |
Bournemouth |
Result |
| 1 |
vs Arsenal (A) |
❌ L 0–3 |
vs Crystal Palace (H) |
✅ W 3–0 |
| 2 |
vs Aston Villa (H) |
✅ W 1–0 |
vs Leeds (H) |
🟡 D 2–2 |
| 3 |
vs Brentford (A) |
🟡 D 0–0 |
vs Newcastle (A) |
✅ W 1–2 |
| 4 |
vs Liverpool (A) |
❌ L 0–2 |
vs Arsenal (A) |
✅ W 1–2 |
| 5 |
vs Burnley (H) |
✅ W 3–1 |
vs Man United (H) |
🟡 D 2–2 |
🔥 Fulham: 2W–1D–2L in last 5 | Bournemouth: 3W–2D–0L — Cherries unbeaten in 5, unstoppable in recent weeks
🔢 Last 10 League Games — Key Stats
| Stat |
Fulham |
Bournemouth |
| Record (W–D–L) |
4–2–4 |
4–6–0 |
| Avg Goals Scored |
0.90 |
1.40 |
| Avg Goals Conceded |
1.20 |
0.80 |
| Avg Total Goals/Game |
2.10 |
2.20 |
| Shots per Game |
13.6 attempts / 3.5 SoT |
14.6 attempts / 4.3 SoT |
| Possession Avg |
49.9% |
53.4% |
| Passes per Game |
444.9 |
429.1 |
| Clean Sheets |
2 |
4 |
| BTTS Yes |
3/10 |
6/10 |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
5/10 |
6/10 |
| Unbeaten run |
— |
🔥 15 matches |
🏠 Venue Stats (Last 10)
| Stat |
Fulham (Home) |
Bournemouth (Away) |
| Record |
6W–1D–3L |
4W–5D–1L |
| Avg Goals Scored |
1.60 |
1.60 |
| Avg Goals Conceded |
1.10 |
1.40 |
| Total Avg Goals/Game |
2.70 |
3.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
7/10 |
6/10 |
| BTTS Yes |
7/10 |
7/10 |
| Bournemouth unbeaten away |
— |
8 consecutive away games |
🏠 Craven Cottage is a genuine fortress — Fulham have won 10 of 17 home PL games this season. Only Arsenal, Man United, Man City and Aston Villa have more home wins. They’ve been shut out at home only twice all season (Arsenal & West Ham).
🤕 Injury Report
Fulham Injuries
| Player |
Position |
Injury |
Return |
Impact |
| 🟡 Sander Berge |
Midfielder |
Illness |
May 9 — possible return |
Key CM — was sickness bug absentee vs Arsenal |
| 🟡 Emile Smith Rowe |
Midfielder |
Cramp/Other |
May 9 — likely available |
Expected to get all-clear |
| 🔴 Ryan Sessegnon |
Midfielder |
Thigh |
May 24 |
Wide option out |
| 🔴 Alex Iwobi |
Forward |
Thigh |
May 24 |
4G/3A — significant absence |
| 🔴 Kevin (Macedo) |
Midfielder |
Ankle/Toe |
May 24 |
Depth option out |
| 🔴 Kenny Tete |
Defender |
Injury |
Indefinite |
RB option out |
Bournemouth Injuries
| Player |
Position |
Injury |
Return |
Impact |
| 🔴 Justin Kluivert |
Forward |
Knee |
May 19 |
Attacking option out |
| 🔴 Lewis Cook |
Midfielder |
Thigh |
May 9 — doubtful |
Experienced CM missing |
| 🔴 Julio Soler |
Defender |
Thigh |
May 9 — doubtful |
Depth defender |
| 🔴 Julian Araujo |
Defender |
Hamstring |
May 17 |
RB option out |
| 🔴 Hamed Traoré |
Midfielder |
Other |
Indefinite |
Rarely featured |
| 🟡 Tyler Adams |
Midfielder |
Injury |
Doubtful |
Midfield anchor question mark |
🚨 Fulham’s sickness bug swept the training ground before Arsenal and cost them heavily (3-0 loss). If fully recovered, this is a very different Fulham. Berge and Smith Rowe both expected back — key boosts. Bournemouth’s biggest concern is Tyler Adams’ fitness as their midfield anchor.
🧮 OleOleOle Oracle Prediction
| Outcome |
Probability |
| 🔴 Fulham Win |
~40–43% |
| 🤝 Draw |
~27–30% |
| 🔵 Bournemouth Win |
~28–32% |
📐 The xG model from NerdyTips independently confirms: Fulham xG 1.36 vs Bournemouth xG 1.79 — showing Bournemouth’s underlying quality is dangerously close despite Fulham’s home advantage.
🧠 Multi-Source Win Probability Consensus
| Source |
Fulham Win |
Draw |
Bournemouth Win |
| SportsGambler |
60–65% (with +0.25 HCP) |
— |
— |
| NerdyTips AI |
37% |
26% |
37% (away win) |
| Bookmakers (market odds) |
37% (2.70) |
27% (3.70) |
41% (2.45) |
| Sports Mole |
Draw leaning |
1–1 |
— |
| FotMob/Opta |
— |
Competitive |
— |
| Poisson Model (this analysis) |
~42% |
~28% |
~30% |
| Consensus Average |
~39–42% |
~27–28% |
~33–37% |
🔑 Key insight: The bookmakers actually make Bournemouth slight away favourites at 2.45 vs Fulham at 2.70 — a reflection of their extraordinary 15-game unbeaten run. This is a genuinely 50/50 match on paper.
📋 Premier League Table Context
| Pos |
Team |
GP |
W |
D |
L |
GF |
GA |
Pts |
| 6 |
Bournemouth |
35 |
12 |
16 |
7 |
55 |
52 |
52 |
| 11 |
Fulham |
35 |
14 |
6 |
15 |
44 |
49 |
48 |
🏅 Bournemouth are chasing European football — they sit 6th but are 6 points off the top 5, so every point matters enormously. Notably, Bournemouth have drawn a league-high 16 games — the draw specialists of the PL. Fulham are safe but Silva’s contract uncertainty adds a layer of motivation to impress.
🎯 Predicted Lineups
Fulham 4–2–3–1 (Marco Silva)
Bernd Leno (GK)
Castagne Andersen Bassey Robinson
Berge Lukic
Wilson Smith Rowe Chukwueze
Jimenez
Key absences: Iwobi, Sessegnon, Kevin, Tete | Returns: Berge, Smith Rowe (illness recovery)
Bournemouth 4–2–3–1 (Andoni Iraola)
Petrovic (GK)
A.Jimenez Hill Senesi Truffert
Scott Adams*
Rayan Kroupi Tavernier
Evanilson
Key absences: Kluivert, Cook, Soler, Araujo | Doubts: Adams (injury), Traoré
🏁 Final Prediction Summary
| Factor |
Advantage |
| Home ground |
🔴 Fulham |
| Home record this season |
🔴 Fulham (10W at home — top 5 in PL) |
| Recent form |
🔵 Bournemouth (unbeaten in 15!) |
| Goals scored avg (last 10) |
🔵 Bournemouth (1.4 vs 0.9) |
| Goals conceded avg (last 10) |
🔵 Bournemouth (0.8 vs 1.2) |
| Away record |
🟡 Both (BOU: 4W–5D–1L vs FUL home: 6W–1D–3L) |
| Unbeaten run |
🔵 Bournemouth (15 games — league best) |
| Bournemouth at Craven Cottage |
🔴 Fulham (BOU haven’t won there since 2018!) |
| Injury impact |
🟡 Both (FUL missing Iwobi/Sessegnon, BOU missing Kluivert/Cook/Adams) |
| Manager motivation |
🟡 Both (Silva contract; Iraola final weeks) |
| Bookmaker edge |
🔵 Bournemouth (slight away favourite) |
| Draw tendency |
🔵 Bournemouth (16 draws — PL high!) |
| xG quality |
🔵 Bournemouth (xG 1.79 vs 1.36) |
🎯 Final Prediction: Fulham 1 – 1 Bournemouth
| Market |
Pick |
Confidence |
| Match Result |
Draw |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Correct Score |
1–1 |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Both Teams to Score |
Yes (BTTS) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals |
Under 2.5 |
⭐⭐⭐ |
| Asian Handicap |
Fulham +0.25 |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Fulham First Goalscorer |
Harry Wilson (6 goals in last 9 home PL games!) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bournemouth scorer |
Eli Junior Kroupi (12 goals — joint PL record for a teenager on debut season) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Fulham Corners |
Under 5.5 (under in 3 straight games) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player Shots |
Alex Scott Over 1.5 shots |
⭐⭐⭐ |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a data-driven analytical prediction for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Please do not gamble.
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