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Recap

🌎 FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 — GROUP F · MATCH 1 · AT&T Stadium · Dallas (Arlington), Texas · Capacity: 94,000 · Climate-Controlled 68–76°F 🏟️ · Netherlands’ 12th WC · 3× Finalists · Japan’s 8th WC · Beat Germany & Spain in 2022 · Mitoma OUT · Simons OUT · De Vrij OUT · De Ligt OUT — 4 key absences shape this opener!

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FIFA World Cup 2026

Group F · Match 1 · AT&T Stadium · Dallas/Arlington, Texas, USA

Friday, 12 June 2026 (Local: Thu 11 Jun, 20:00 CDT)

03:00 BST · 04:00 CEST · 22:00 ET (Jun 11) · 11:00 KST (Jun 12)

⚽ WC2026 · Group A · Game 2

netherlands

Oranje · 12th World Cup 🇳🇱 · 3× WC Finalists (1974, 1978, 2010)

FIFA #7 · Group F Strong Favourites

Manager: Ronald Koeman · 4-3-3 · Gakpo & Reijnders lead attack · Depay returns

VS

Kick-off 15:00 Local (CT)

japan

Samurai Blue · 8th World Cup 🇯🇵 · Beat GER & ESP at Qatar 2022

FIFA #18 · Group F Dark Horse

Manager: Hajime Moriyasu · 4-2-3-1 · Ueda & Kubo lead · Mitoma OUT

⚽ World Cup 2026 — Match Verdict

Netherlands Edge It — Superior Depth & World-Class Spine Overcome Japan's Tactical Discipline · Mitoma Absence Narrows Japan's Upset Path Significantly

This is genuinely one of the most intriguing Group F openers of WC2026. Netherlands (FIFA #7) are clear favourites — Van Dijk's defensive authority, Gakpo's sustained form (7 PL goals for Liverpool), the Reijnders–De Jong midfield axis and sheer squad depth at every position makes them the more complete side over 90 minutes. But Japan are not here just to participate. Moriyasu's side beat Germany and Spain in Qatar 2022 using the same mid-block-and-counter blueprint they will deploy here. The seismic problem for Japan: Kaoru Mitoma — their single biggest attacking threat and the left-winger who would have been tasked with exploiting Dumfries' overlap — is WC-ruled-out with a hamstring injury. Add Endo's post-surgery foot doubts and this is a materially weakened Japan. For Netherlands: Xavi Simons (ACL), De Vrij (injury), De Ligt (injury) and Schouten (ACL) are all out — real losses but the depth holds. Memphis Depay is back and in the squad. Polymarket prices NED 49¢, Draw 26¢, JPN 27¢. Squawka & WTK Sports both back Netherlands. Our verdict: Netherlands win 2–1, an open game with chances at both ends, Japan scoring on the counter but Netherlands quality ultimately telling.

2 — 1

Predicted Score

49%

NED Win Conf.

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📊 Win Probability — Multi-Source Consensus (5 Models)

49%

NETHERLANDS Win

26%

Draw

25%

Japan Win

🇳🇱 Netherlands

49%

Odds: +100 (bet365) / 1.925

Draw

26%

Odds: +257 / 3.80

🇯🇵 Japan

25%

Odds: +240 / 3.50

Tips.GG Implied

NED 1.925

Draw 3.80 · JPN 3.50

Squawka / bet365

NED +100

Draw +275 · JPN +240

Polymarket Live

NED 49¢

Draw 26¢ · JPN 27¢ (live)

PredMarketPicks

NED 49%

Draw 28% · JPN 23%

WTK Sports

NED 2–0

NED win 65% · JPN win 10%

Get the Complete Match Analysis

Download the full match analysis and breakdown of our prediction

Click Here

Details

Date Time League Season Full Time
June 15, 2026 4:00 am World Cup 2026 2026 90'

Ground

Dallas Stadium
1 AT&T Way, Arlington, TX 76011, United States

Results

ClubGoals
Netherlands2
Japan1