Recap
⚽ Liverpool vs Chelsea — Match Analysis & Prediction
Premier League GW36 | Anfield | Saturday, 9 May 2026 | 07:30 ET / 12:30 BST
🏆 Verdict: Liverpool to Win — Predicted Score: 2–1
Confidence Level: HIGH (60–65%) — Liverpool are strong favourites at home against a Chelsea side in complete freefall.
📊 Head-to-Head Overview
| Metric |
Detail |
| Last 10 H2H (all venues) |
LIV: 3W · 5D · CFC: 2W |
| Last 5 at Anfield |
LIV: 4W · 2D · CFC: 1W |
| Most recent H2H |
Chelsea 2–1 LIV (Oct 2025 @ Stamford Bridge) |
| Chelsea won last 2 in a row |
2–1 and 3–1 (both at Stamford Bridge) |
| Last at Anfield |
Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea (Oct 2024) |
⚠️ Chelsea’s recent back-to-back H2H wins came at home. At Anfield, it’s a very different story — Chelsea have only won 1 of their last 10 Premier League visits there.
📈 Form Guide (Last 5 League Games)
| # |
Liverpool |
Result |
Chelsea |
Result |
| 1 |
vs Man United (A) |
❌ L 2–3 |
vs Nott’m Forest (H) |
❌ L 1–3 |
| 2 |
vs Crystal Palace (H) |
✅ W 3–1 |
vs Brighton (A) |
❌ L 0–3 |
| 3 |
vs Everton (A) |
✅ W 2–1 |
vs Man United (H) |
❌ L 0–1 |
| 4 |
vs Fulham (H) |
✅ W 2–0 |
vs Man City (H) |
❌ L 0–3 |
| 5 |
vs Brighton (A) |
❌ L 1–2 |
vs Everton (A) |
❌ L 0–3 |
🔥 Liverpool: 3W–2L in last 5 | Chelsea: 0W–5L — a devastating run of form
🔢 Last 10 League Games — Key Stats
| Stat |
Liverpool |
Chelsea |
| Record (W–D–L) |
6–1–3 |
1–2–7 |
| Avg Goals Scored |
1.9 |
0.9 |
| Avg Goals Conceded |
1.2 |
2.0 |
| Possession Avg |
56.6% |
58.9% |
| Shots on Goal Avg |
4.9 |
3.5 |
| Clean Sheets |
3 |
— |
| Chelsea’s losing streak |
— |
6 straight losses |
🏠 Venue Stats (Last 10)
| Stat |
Liverpool (Home) |
Chelsea (Away) |
| Record |
7W–1D–2L |
3W–3D–4L |
| Avg Goals Scored |
2.90 |
1.50 |
| Avg Goals Conceded |
0.90 |
1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
7/10 matches |
8/10 matches |
| BTTS Yes |
5/10 |
7/10 |
🤕 Injury Report
| Player |
Position |
Injury |
Return |
| 🔴 Mohamed Salah |
Forward |
Thigh |
May 17 — MISSES THIS MATCH |
| 🔴 Hugo Ekitike |
Forward |
Calf |
Oct 2026 — top scorer (11 goals) OUT |
| 🟡 Alexander Isak |
Forward |
Other |
May 9 — possible return |
| 🔴 Conor Bradley |
Defender |
Knee |
Nov 2026 |
| 🟡 Alisson Becker |
— |
— |
Possible return |
| 🔴 Wataru Endo |
Midfielder |
Ankle |
May 24 |
| Player |
Position |
Injury |
Return |
| 🔴 Robert Sanchez |
Goalkeeper |
Head |
Indefinite — OUT |
| 🔴 Pedro Neto |
Forward |
Knock |
Indefinite |
| 🔴 Alejandro Garnacho |
Forward |
Knock |
Indefinite |
| 🔴 Estevao |
Forward |
Thigh |
Jun 1 |
| 🔴 Mykhaylo Mudryk |
— |
Doping ban |
— |
🚨 Liverpool miss Salah + Ekitike (their #1 and #2 scorers this season) — this is significant but offset by Chelsea’s dreadful form and their own GK crisis (Sanchez out, Joergensen starts).
🧮 OleOleOle Oracle Prediction
| Outcome |
Probability |
| 🔴 Liverpool Win |
~55–60% |
| 🤝 Draw |
~20–22% |
| 🔵 Chelsea Win |
~24–25% |
🧠 Multi-Source Win Probability Consensus
| Source |
Liverpool Win |
Draw |
Chelsea Win |
| SportsGambler |
60–65% |
— |
— |
| Opta Supercomputer |
52.5% |
21.8% |
25.7% |
| Sports Mole Model |
55.5% |
20.5% |
24.0% |
| Stats Insider (10k sims) |
54.1% |
20.9% |
24.9% |
| Consensus Average |
🏆 ~55–60% |
~21% |
~25% |
🎯 Predicted Lineups
Liverpool 4–4–2 (Arne Slot)
Woodman (GK)
Jones Konate Van Dijk Robertson
Frimpong Gravenberch Mac Allister Gakpo
Szoboszlai Wirtz
Key absences: Salah, Ekitike, Bradley, Endo
Chelsea 4–2–3–1 (Calum McFarlane, interim)
Joergensen (GK)
Gusto Chalobah Tosin Cucurella
Lavia Caicedo
Palmer Fernandez Joao Pedro
Delap
Key absences: R. Sanchez, Garnacho, Neto, Estevao, Mudryk
🏁 Final Prediction Summary
| Factor |
Advantage |
| Home ground |
🔴 Liverpool |
| Recent form |
🔴 Liverpool (heavily) |
| H2H at Anfield |
🔴 Liverpool |
| Goals scored avg |
🔴 Liverpool |
| Goals conceded avg |
🔴 Liverpool |
| Injuries impact |
🟡 Both (both missing key players) |
| Momentum |
🔴 Liverpool (Chelsea on 6-game losing streak) |
| Manager stability |
🔴 Liverpool (Slot vs interim McFarlane) |
🎯 Final Prediction: Liverpool 2 – 1 Chelsea
| Market |
Pick |
Confidence |
| Match Result |
Liverpool Win |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Correct Score |
2–1 Liverpool |
⭐⭐⭐ |
| Both Teams to Score |
Yes (BTTS) |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals |
Over 2.5 |
⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| First Goalscorer |
Florian Wirtz or Szoboszlai |
⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chelsea Threat |
Joao Pedro anytime scorer |
⭐⭐⭐ |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a data-driven analytical prediction, not financial advice. Please do not gamble.
Liverpool F.C.Chelsea 