This is categorically the match of the entire 2026 World Cup — a semi-final so evenly matched that every major modelling platform struggles to separate the teams by more than fractional percentages. France have won six consecutive games, conceding just once, with Kylian Mbappé operating at the peak of his career with eight goals and a team-high 16 chances created. Didier Deschamps — confirming this will be his final tournament in charge — has France purring, with Olise (6 assists, chasing Pelé's 1970 record), Dembélé (5G 2A), and Doué providing elite secondary firepower. Spain arrive equally dominant: unbeaten in 36 consecutive games (joint second-longest international streak in history), having conceded just once in six WC2026 matches, with Oyarzabal's clinical finishing and the Yamal-Baena axis posing permanent threats. Crucially, Spain have beaten France in both of their last two competitive clashes — Euro 2024 semi-final (2-1 in Munich) and the Nations League semi-final (5-4 in Stuttgart, June 2025). Dimers' data model gives France a 40.4% win probability vs Spain's 32.6% and draw 27.0% — the market's marginal lean to France at +138/+150 reflects the coin-toss nature of this contest. FootballWhispers' hot tip: BTTS YES at 7/10 (1.7). Squawka backs Mbappé to score anytime (+122). Our lean: France 2-1 in a pulsating semi-final classic.