Uruguay are the overwhelming favourites here — ranked 44 places above Saudi Arabia, with Valverde, Núñez, Bentancur and Ugarte forming one of the most complete midfield/attack combinations in the tournament. Dimers gives Uruguay 67.1% win probability, Forebet 59%, PredictionMarketsPicks 69%, and Tips.GG clearly back them as 2nd favourites in Group H at 1.15 to qualify. But Saudi Arabia are not a pushover: their 2022 win over Argentina is the greatest modern World Cup upset, the same Al-Dawsari who scored that winner is still captain at 34, and new coach Donis (appointed just 59 days before this game) has built a compact 4-2-3-1 block designed to absorb and counter. Two CRITICAL Uruguay injury concerns shift things: De Arrascaeta (calf tear — OUT for this match) and Ronald Araujo (muscle strain + illness — DOUBT for opener). Miami's summer heat and humidity (30°C+, 80% humidity) may also benefit Saudi Arabia's heat-acclimatised players. Moneyline: Uruguay −205 to −223, Saudi Arabia +650 to +900. Our pick: Uruguay 2–0 Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia will make it difficult for 70+ minutes.