This is genuinely one of the most intriguing Group F openers of WC2026. Netherlands (FIFA #7) are clear favourites — Van Dijk's defensive authority, Gakpo's sustained form (7 PL goals for Liverpool), the Reijnders–De Jong midfield axis and sheer squad depth at every position makes them the more complete side over 90 minutes. But Japan are not here just to participate. Moriyasu's side beat Germany and Spain in Qatar 2022 using the same mid-block-and-counter blueprint they will deploy here. The seismic problem for Japan: Kaoru Mitoma — their single biggest attacking threat and the left-winger who would have been tasked with exploiting Dumfries' overlap — is WC-ruled-out with a hamstring injury. Add Endo's post-surgery foot doubts and this is a materially weakened Japan. For Netherlands: Xavi Simons (ACL), De Vrij (injury), De Ligt (injury) and Schouten (ACL) are all out — real losses but the depth holds. Memphis Depay is back and in the squad. Polymarket prices NED 49¢, Draw 26¢, JPN 27¢. Squawka & WTK Sports both back Netherlands. Our verdict: Netherlands win 2–1, an open game with chances at both ends, Japan scoring on the counter but Netherlands quality ultimately telling.