This is the World Cup 2026 third-place play-off — a match no one wanted, but one loaded with compelling subplot. France, the tournament's most prolific attack with 16 goals, were only shut out by a supreme Spain side. Against an England defence that conceded 8 goals across the knockout rounds without a single clean sheet, Deschamps' men will find considerably more space. The Golden Boot subplot is central: Mbappe sits on 8 goals tied with Messi — and with the Argentine legend playing in Sunday's final, this is Mbappe's final chance to cement his individual legacy. Three USA TODAY experts unanimously predict France 3-1, Squawka's model gives France a 57% win probability, Dimers places France at 48.4% — the clear market favourite at +100 to England's +300. Key absences compound England's disadvantage: William Saliba is out with a serious back injury requiring surgery (replaced by Lacroix), while Reece James has suffered yet another muscular setback. England's 0-from-9 run against France in recent meetings is damning. Third-place play-offs are historically open, high-scoring affairs — both Squawka (BTTS 58%, Over 2.5: 60%) and FanDuel (-250 Over, -290 BTTS) reflect this. Our prediction: France win 2-1 in a lively, open encounter that gives Mbappe another goal to chase Messi's lead.