This is a heavyweight mismatch on paper that could be closer in practice. The USA are the host nation, ranked #17 in the world vs Bosnia's #64, and arrive off winning Group D with 8 goals — the most the USMNT has ever scored in a World Cup group stage. Critically, Pochettino rested all four yellow-carded starters (Balogun, Adams, Robinson, Richards) vs Türkiye, meaning every key player is fresh and suspension-free for this one. Christian Pulisic is back fit after his calf scare and set to captain the side. Weston McKennie (xA: 1.54, xG: 1.04) is the creative engine, while Balogun (2 goals, xG 0.88) leads the attack. Bosnia are extraordinary underdogs — they reached the knockout stage for the FIRST TIME EVER in their history, qualifying as one of the best third-placed teams. Their talismanic 40-year-old captain Edin Dzeko (73 goals, 150 caps) has yet to score at this tournament but remains a constant threat. Teenage sensation Kerim Alajbegovic (18, Bayer Leverkusen-bound) grabbed the eye vs Qatar. BUT Bosnia's route here was unconvincing: 1-1 vs Canada, 1-4 to Switzerland, 3-1 vs Qatar. Conceded 5 in 3 games. The talent gap is real. Our prediction: USA controlled win 2–1, with Bosnia grabbing a consolation goal as Dzeko applies late pressure. Bet365: USA -223 (69%); BettingOdds consensus: USA 62–69% win probability.