This is the decisive Group D decider — second place on the line. Australia (FIFA #27) sit 2nd with GD of 0 vs Paraguay (FIFA #41) at 3rd with GD of –2. A draw guarantees Australia 2nd place; Paraguay MUST WIN. Key factor: Miguel Almirón suspended (historically first WC red for mouth-cover rule) — Paraguay lose their creative engine and top scorer (10 goals). Julio Enciso (22 yrs, ex-Brighton) must shoulder the creative burden. Australia lost Leckie (hamstring) and Italiano (adductor) — Popovic faces selection headaches at right wing-back. Irankunda expected to START after starring as sub vs USA. Opta (25,000 simulations): Draw 38.6% · Paraguay Win 38.0% · Australia Win 23.4%. Oddspedia SmartBet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 72.21% confidence. Community 86% back Over 2.0 goals. Draw is strong value at 2.32; Paraguay narrow favourite to win outright. Our Pick: 1-1 Draw — Australia's superior defensive structure and goal difference safety net edges them to a point, but Paraguay find an equaliser through Enciso brilliance.