Uruguay enter this match as heavy favourites. Despite the internal turbulence under Marcelo Bielsa — including the Suárez fallout, a 5-1 thrashing by the USA in November 2025 and significant injury concerns (De Arrascaeta Grade 2 calf, Ronald Araújo muscle strain, José María Giménez, Piquerez all doubtful/absent for MD1 vs Saudi Arabia) — they possess undeniably superior quality. Valverde (Real Madrid), Ugarte (Man Utd), Bentancur (Spurs), Darwin Núñez (even match-rusty), and Araújo provide a roster that dwarfs anything Cabo Verde can match. The Blue Sharks are making history just being here — they topped CAF qualifying ahead of Cameroon from a 600,000-person island nation. Bubista's team is organised, compact in a 4-4-2 block, dangerous on the counter with Livramento's pace and Ryan Mendes's experience. However, the quality gap is enormous — Polymarket has Uruguay at 69¢ (69%), KickOff's model puts Uruguay at 66% win probability. PredictionMarketsPicks gives Uruguay 80%. Our pick: Uruguay 2–0 — with Darwin Núñez ending his goal drought and Valverde driving everything. Cabo Verde may threaten early but Uruguay's bench depth and pressing intensity will tell after 60 minutes.