This is a high-stakes Group F clash at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey — a venue Tunisia already know from their 5-1 thrashing by Sweden in MD1. Japan enter riding form momentum: 5 consecutive wins before the tournament, a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands (coming back from 2-1 down), and a squad loaded with European starters. Tunisia are MUST-WIN desperate: 0 points and a -4 goal difference means defeat here effectively ends their knockout stage hopes. However, desperation can breed either heroics or collapse — and Sweden exposed massive defensive and pressing vulnerabilities. Japan's key losses (Mitoma, Endo) are significant but Nakamura showed his quality vs Netherlands (a goal), Kamada scored late, and Kubo anchors the attack creatively. Markets agree: Japan are firm favourites at -188 to win. Oddspedia's model gives Japan 55%+ win probability, Tips.GG bookmakers agree (Japan 60%). Tunisia +650 to win tells the story. Over 1.5 Goals looks like the strongest bet at -275 (Oddspedia, 72.74% probability). Our pick: Japan win 2-0 in a controlled performance — mirroring their only WC meeting in 2002.