This is a match that feels like a mismatch on paper — but Australia will make it competitive. Türkiye carry Arda Güler (Real Madrid), Kenan Yıldız (Juventus), and Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter Milan), a generational trident of attacking talent returning to the World Cup after 24 years. Montella's 4-2-3-1 is perfectly structured to exploit Australia's defensive gaps. Polymarket prices Türkiye at 56¢ (56%) vs Australia 19¢ (19%), with Fox Sports showing TUR at −155. Dimers gives TUR 52.1% win probability. Australia's Socceroos showed character in their 1-1 draw vs Switzerland (Jun 6) — Tony Popovic's team is disciplined, physical, and dangerous at set-pieces with Harry Souttar towering at CB. But the Socceroos are missing Aiden O'Neill through injury, their midfield is Chance League/Championship-level, and they conceded 3 goals in a pre-WC friendly defeat to Colombia. Türkiye are unbeaten in their last 6 — scoring 17 goals in qualifying. The market, models, and logic all say: Türkiye win. Our pick: Türkiye 2–0. Under 2.5 Goals is the sharpest market line at −125/−135.