Recap

⚽ Everton vs Sunderland — Match Analysis & Prediction

Premier League GW37 | Hill Dickinson Stadium | Sunday, 17 May 2026 | 15:00 BST / 10:00 ET

🏆 Verdict: Everton to Win — Predicted Score: 1–0

Confidence Level: MODERATE (52–57%) — This is a classic end-of-season mid-table clash between two sides separated by just one point in the Premier League table, both desperately chasing a top-half finish. Everton, at home at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, carry the home advantage, familiarity, and arguably the superior individual quality — even with their injury problems. However, with both sides currently on a winless streak (Everton five without a win, Sunderland four without a win) and an incredibly close probability spread across all three outcomes, this is one of the most genuinely unpredictable fixtures of the entire Premier League weekend. The statistical models are virtually unanimous on one thing: this will be a low-scoring, tight, fiercely-contested affair — with an Everton narrow home win the most probable, but by no means certain, outcome.

📊 Head-to-Head Overview

⚠️ Everton have not won a Premier League home game against Sunderland since February 2017 at Goodison Park — but this is the first meeting at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium, making historical home data partially redundant. The reverse fixture this season ended 1-1 in Sunderland, with both teams drawing for the second time in recent memory in all competitions. Set-piece goals have been decisive in recent H2H encounters — Nordi Mukiele’s 17th-minute goal and Jake O’Brien’s equaliser in November 2025 being the most relevant reference points.

📈 Form Guide (Last 5 League Games)

🔥 Everton: 0W–3D–2L in last 5 — five consecutive league games without a win, including two defeats against Liverpool and West Ham. However, they have been high-scoring in draws (3-3 vs Man City, 2-2 vs Crystal Palace, 2-2 vs Brentford)
🔥 Sunderland: 1W–2D–2L in last 5 — four consecutive games without a win after beating Tottenham 1-0 on April 12. Were crushed 0-5 by Nottingham Forest at the Stadium of Light — their heaviest home defeat of the season

🔢 Season-Long & Recent Stats Compared

📌 Notable context: Sunderland have actually accumulated more points than Everton in the last 8 games (11 vs 9) — suggesting their overall recent form is marginally better despite their current 4-game winless streak. This is one of the closest statistical matchups of the entire Premier League season.

🏠 Venue Stats (Season — Home vs Away)

📌 Devastating away stat for Sunderland: Visiting teams fail to score in 44% of Sunderland: Visiting teams fail to score in 44% of Sunderland away games — the worst away attacking record in the top half of the table. Meanwhile, Sunderland’s average goals scored away from home is just 0.78 per game (lowest amongst all sides finishing above the relegation zone). Combined with Everton’s 1.39 goals scored per home game, the data strongly supports an Everton clean sheet or 1-0/1-1 scoreline.

🎯 Key Statistical Streaks & Sequences

🚨 Warning signal: Everton have conceded in each of their last 5 consecutive games and allowed 2+ goals in every one of those matches — their defensive record is alarmingly poor. However, Sunderland’s away scoring rate of 0.78 per game and their 44% chance of failing to score away from home balances this out significantly.

🤕 Injury Report

Everton Injuries

Sunderland Injuries

🚨 Everton’s triple injury blow of Beto + Grealish + Branthwaite is devastating. Beto’s concussion injury (FotMob confirmed) means David Moyes is without his most consistent striker heading into this crucial home match. Grealish (stress fracture since January) and Branthwaite (hamstring — stretchered off vs Liverpool) are both out for the season. If Idrissa Gueye also misses out, Everton lose four key first-team players simultaneously — a severe blow to their quality.

For Sunderland, Dan Ballard’s suspension is the critical loss. The centre-back has been one of the most dependable defenders in Régis Le Bris’ side all season (29 PL appearances, 2 goals). His absence alongside Romaine Mundle, Angulo, and Traoré depletes Le Bris’ squad depth considerably — but the starting XI remains relatively intact.

🎯 Predicted Lineups

Everton — 4-2-3-1 (David Moyes)

                Jordan Pickford (GK)
   Jake O'Brien · James Tarkowski · Michael Keane · Vitaliy Mykolenko
         Tim Iroegbunam · James Garner
  Merlin Röhl · Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Iliman Ndiaye
                   Thierno Barry

Beto confirmed OUT — Barry leads the line
Gueye doubtful — Iroegbunam likely starts if Gueye misses
Jack Grealish — season over (broken foot, January)
Branthwaite — season over (hamstring)

Sunderland — 4-2-3-1 (Régis Le Bris)

                Robin Roefs (GK)
  Lutsharel Geertruida · Nordi Mukiele · Omar Alderete · Reinildo Mandava
             Enzo Le Fée · Granit Xhaka
    Chemsdine Talbi · Noah Sadiki · Trai Hume
                  Brian Brobbey

Ballard SUSPENDED — Alderete and Mukiele step into CB
Mundle OUT — Hume deputises in wide role
Wilson Isidor possibly back from injury — could feature off bench

📋 Premier League Table Context (After GW36)

🎯 What’s at stake: With just one point separating them in the table (Everton 49, Sunderland 48), this is an authentic top-half mini-derby with real competitive stakes. A win for Everton would take them to 52 points — almost certainly guaranteeing a top-10 finish and staying above Fulham and Sunderland. A Sunderland win would see them leapfrog Everton into 10th place on 51 points. A draw maintains the status quo. Both managers know exactly what the result means for their season’s final standing. The SoccerStats.com outcome scenario confirms: if Sunderland win, they overtake Everton in the table. Pride and end-of-season standing are very much at stake.

🧮 OleOleOle Oracle Prediction

🧠 Multi-Source Win Probability Consensus

📌 Model split note: The MyFootballFacts AI model gives this as the tightest fixture of the weekend — just 2.38 percentage points between Everton (37.22%) and Sunderland (34.84%). The 1-1 scoreline is the single most likely correct score at 12.56%, followed by 1-0 Everton at 10.85% and 0-1 Sunderland at 9.91%. This is extraordinarily close.

🏁 Final Prediction Summary

🎯 Final Prediction: Everton 1 – 0 Sunderland

🔍 Why Everton Can Win This — And Secure 10th Place

Despite one of the worst recent runs in their season, Everton carry multiple arguments for a vital home win at Hill Dickinson Stadium:

• Home advantage is real and measurable. Everton have averaged 1.39 goals scored per home game compared to Sunderland’s miserly 0.78 goals per away game — one of the lowest away scoring averages in the entire league. That gap in productivity is enormous. The data from SoccerStats.com makes it clear: Sunderland’s away attacking output is severely limited.
• Sunderland fail to score in nearly half their away games. With a 44% chance of failing to score on their travels this season — the worst rate of any club in the top 13 of the table — Sunderland arrive at Hill Dickinson with a significant attacking deficiency. Everton’s goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has kept 6 clean sheets this season; another here is entirely plausible.
• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Thierno Barry are in fine individual form. With Beto injured, Barry (8 PL goals) leads the line and has been one of the division’s most underrated strikers — clinical and physical. Dewsbury-Hall’s 8 goals and 3 assists (ESPN) make him the most dangerous player in this Everton team.
• Everton score 33% of their goals after the 75th minute — the highest late-goal scoring rate of any team in the bottom half. They rarely give up without a fight, and their capacity to find late goals makes them dangerous even in tight contests.
• Sunderland lose their defensive leader. Dan Ballard — one of Le Bris’ most reliable defenders all season with 29 appearances and 2 goals — serves the second game of his three-match suspension. His absence forces Mukiele and Alderete into central defensive roles they are less comfortable occupying. Everton’s set-piece delivery from Garner and the physicality of Tarkowski and Keane on corners becomes an even greater weapon.
• The xG model strongly favours Everton. With an expected goals ratio of 1.58 vs 1.07 (Matips model), Everton’s attacking quality is measurably superior — and with home advantage amplifying that edge, the data supports a narrow home win.
• David Moyes knows the stakes. The Everton manager is an experienced Premier League operator who excels in tight, pragmatic matches. With the opportunity to reach 52 points and secure a guaranteed top-half finish — something that would represent genuine progress for the club this season — Moyes will have his team defensively compact and alert to the counter.

🔍 Why Sunderland Could Upset Everton — Or At Least Draw

Régis Le Bris’ men are not making the trip to Merseyside just to make up the numbers:

• Better form in the last 8 games. Sunderland have accumulated 11 points from their last 8 Premier League outings versus Everton’s 9 — meaning the visitors arrive in relatively better recent form, even if both sides are currently winless. The gap between them is smaller than the table suggests.
• Everton’s injury crisis is genuinely severe. Losing Beto (concussion), Branthwaite (hamstring — season over), Grealish (broken foot — since January) and potentially Gueye (knock) simultaneously strips David Moyes of his most important players in attack, defence and midfield. Barry leads the line but is not the dynamic focal point that Beto provides.
• Everton have conceded in every single one of their last 5 games — and allowed 2+ goals in all five. Their defensive record at home is actually poor (conceded in 67% of home games this season, including 12 of 18). Brian Brobbey and the direct running of Chemsdine Talbi have the quality to expose this.
• Sunderland have scored in 5 consecutive away matches. Despite the poor away scoring average overall, Sunderland have found the net in every recent away game — suggesting they are capable of threatening even on the road when it matters.
• 68% of Sunderland’s goals come in the second half — if this game is tight at the break (which the data strongly suggests it will be), Le Bris’ men are well-suited to snatching a point or even three through late movement and pressure.
• Granit Xhaka and Enzo Le Fée’s midfield control. The experienced Swiss captain (1 goal, 5 assists this season) alongside Le Fée (4 goals, 5 assists) gives Sunderland a genuinely creative midfield engine that can unlock organised defences. Their combined output — 10 direct goal contributions from two midfielders — is arguably the most impressive contribution from a central midfield pair outside the top seven.
• The psychological freedom of being 12th. Without the suffocating weight of a relegation battle, Sunderland can play with relative freedom. A win would take them above Everton into 10th place — a remarkable achievement for a newly promoted side. That is a real, tangible incentive.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a multi-source, data-driven analytical prediction for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.